Well the CPI ( Consumer price index) numbers are out for the month and it has been reported that inflation for May has gone down a full percentage point from 4.4% to 3.4%. This has been the biggest monthly change since the inflation hit the peak of 8.1% in June of 2022, and the lowest rate since June of 2021. So it now give me some confidence that we will soon hit that 2% target.
The slowing of inflation in May, led by a significant drop in gasoline prices, according to Statistics Canada. The deceleration was down from 4.4% last month, with gasoline prices being the key factor in the data. Removing gasoline, the inflation rate was 4.4%. Despite the slowdown, many facets of living costs are still increasing sharply, such as grocery prices, which rose almost 9% in May, and the cost of housing, with mortgage interest costs skyrocketing to a record 29.9% increase. Shelter costs rose 4.7%, and rent increased by 5.6% in the past year.
The decline was largely due to base year effects from the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on international energy prices. The result was in line with the Bank of Canada’s baseline scenario, which expects inflation to slow to 3% by summer. The slowdown was attributed to a decline in energy prices, particularly gasoline, and eased supply chain bottlenecks for durable goods. However, mortgage interest costs saw the sharpest hike in history, driven by the high interest of the Bank of Canada. The core inflation rate also slowed more than expected to 3.7%. On a monthly basis, the CPI rose 0.4%.
The next up in this economic chess match will be the Bank of Canada’s next policy meeting on July 12th. Despite the decrease, some economists are warning that the Bank of Canada may still raise interest rates again in July. While the cooling in inflation may ease the pressure on the bank, more information is needed to determine the effect of inflation, with June’s job data and the Bank’s own business outlook survey among the metrics to be considered. Let’s take today’s good news with a grain of salt.
Today I am thankful for some pleasing economic news, a great early morning run and a new book discovered hidden away in my house.
I look forward to hearing from you in regard to your mortgage needs.
p.s.s- I should tell you that I am licensed in Nova Scotia Brokerage (2022-3000179) Broker (2022-3000180), Ontario(M18001555) & in British Columbia(BCFSA #504098).
p.s.s.s You can download my new mortgage app here