The Bank of Canada raised its overnight rate a quarter point to 2.50% on October 28 — its first move in a year — and the honest answer to “what does the Bank of Canada rate hike mean for your mortgage” is that it depends on which side of the rope you’re standing on: variable-rate holders feel it almost immediately, fixed-rate holders mostly feel it at renewal.

What Did the Bank of Canada Just Do?

On October 28, the Bank raised its policy rate from 2.25% to 2.50%, pushing the Bank Rate to 2.75% and the deposit rate to 2.45%. It’s the first change in either direction in exactly a year — the last move was a cut back in October 2025.

Why Did the Bank of Canada Raise Rates Now?

Inflation hit 3.1% in September, pushed mainly by a spike in oil prices (crude touched roughly US$117 a barrel). That’s worth sitting with for a second, though: core inflation — the number that strips out volatile stuff like energy — is still sitting closer to 2%. The headline number looks worse than the underlying pressure actually is. The Bank also flagged ongoing trade uncertainty with the U.S. as part of the backdrop, even though it wasn’t the stated trigger.

What Does This Mean for Your Mortgage?

If you’re on a variable rate, your payment (or the interest portion of it, depending on your product) moves with this almost immediately. If you’re fixed, nothing changes until renewal — but if your renewal is coming up in the next 6-12 months, this is a signal worth paying attention to now rather than when the letter shows up in your mailbox. And if you’re already stretched — carrying a lot of debt, self-employed with lumpy income, or sitting in a file a bank has already said no to — rate uncertainty is exactly when traditional lending gets tighter, not looser.

What Are Economists Saying About the Next Few Meetings?

Nobody’s fully agreed, and I’d rather tell you that plainly than pretend there’s a consensus. The Bank’s next decision is December 9. Some economists (RBC, BMO) expect one more quarter-point hike before spring 2027, then a hold around 2.75%. Others (CMHC, National Bank) don’t expect another move until sometime in 2027. The Bank itself said only that more increases “may be needed” and that it will “proceed carefully” — which is about as honest an answer as anyone’s giving right now.

Where Does This Leave You?

If the bank’s door is closing — on a renewal, a refinance, or a purchase — because the numbers got tighter overnight, that’s not the end of the conversation, it’s the start of a different one. Private and alternative financing exists for exactly this kind of timing gap: when the plan is sound but the math no longer fits inside a traditional lender’s box.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Bank of Canada’s overnight rate now?
As of October 28, 2026, it’s 2.50%, up a quarter point from 2.25%.

Will the Bank of Canada raise rates again in 2026?
Economists are split. Some expect one more hike before spring 2027; others don’t expect another move until later in 2027. The Bank’s next decision is December 9, 2026.

Does a Bank of Canada rate hike affect fixed mortgage rates?
Not directly — fixed rates track bond yields, not the overnight rate. Variable rates and lines of credit move almost immediately.

What should I do if my mortgage renews soon?
Start the conversation now rather than at your renewal date, especially if rates are trending up — you’ll have more options with more lead time.

Source: Bank of Canada, October 28, 2026 interest rate announcement.

---

I look forward to hearing from you in regard to your mortgage needs.

902-465-5533. I answer.
Patrick

P.S. Ready to start? Apply here: https://craigburn-capital.mtg-app.com
P.S. Prefer to talk it through first? Book a time with me here: Schedule a call
P.S. FSRA Principal Broker License #M23006699, Craigburn Capital. NS Brokerage 2025-3000179, NS Broker 2025-3000180.
P.S. Get the Craigburn mortgage app: https://craigburn-capital.mtg-app.com

Patrick Sawler is a mortgage broker and owner of Craigburn Capital, licensed in Nova Scotia and Ontario, with private financing available in New Brunswick and PEI. He answers his phone.

Call 902-465-5533 or start your application today.