Tag Archive for: fixed vs variable

Predictions

After reading the Bank of Canada’s press release after it’s last rate announcement on April 13th, it is quite clear that they believe that we will be in a higher inflationary zone till almost 2024. What this means is that we have definitely not see the last of the Bank of Canada rate hikes. Our CPI numbers were released after the BOC met and blew away their prediction of a 6% rate when we hit 6.7%.

Some in my field are even saying that the BOC’s target for the prime rate will hit 5.20% before things start to settle down. Just so you don’t have to do the math that is a full 200 basis points or 2% higher that we are right now. By reaching those rates it will also take us closer to parity with the 5 year fixed rate when the discount to prime has been calculated in for clients.

That being said I am still going to stick it out with my variable rate, however clients who are in a variable rate have to decide themselves if they will sleep better at night by increasing their rate by switching from a variable to a fixed. The current spread in the difference is between 1.5 – 2% from the variable to the fixed, but without the rate volatility that the variable is going through.

I look forward to hearing from you in regard to your mortgage needs.

Patrick

p.s- You can click on this link to start the process whenever you are ready. Schedule your meeting with me here.

p.s.s- I should tell you that I am licensed in Nova Scotia Brokerage (2021-3000179) Broker (2021-3000180), Ontario(M18001555) & in British Columbia(BCFSA #504098).

p.s.s.s You can download my new mortgage app here

Do the Math

There is a lot of talk about the Bank of Canada changing overnight lending rate at it’s next meeting. So some ill informed homeowners are rushing to lock in their mortgage rates to avoid any rate hikes. That is entirely understandable if you are risk adverse, however if you haven’t already I think there is a few things you should know.

Ok so to make sure that you are informed, we need to do some math. I just looked at the our current rates, and for AAA credit clients who required an insured mortgage the variable rates are averaging at prime ( 2.45) less 1.10%, so that means they start at 1.35% and the fixed rates for insured mortgages average 2.89%. If you haven’t done the math that is 1.54% in the difference. For uninsured clients the rates are slightly different, variable is prime -.90 (1.55%) and fixed is 3.04%, which is a difference of 1.49%.

Historically the Bank of Canada has moved rates at .25% at a time. There have been instances where that has been .50% and also .15% but the average in the past 12 years has been .25%. Given the current disparity between the current fixed rate and the available variable rate, I still believe that the variable rate is the way to go. The BOC would have to move the over night lending rate 8 times at .25% to equate to the current fixed rate. Even at that the variable rate is still superior as the potential penalty to discharge or break it is a fraction of what it would be for a fixed rate.

So do the math and see if this makes sense to you. However if you are risk adverse you may sleep better knowing that you have a fixed rate but you should at least make an educated decision.

I look forward to hearing from you in regard to your mortgage needs.

Patrick

p.s- You can click on this link to start the process whenever you are ready. Schedule your meeting with me here.

p.s.s- I should tell you that I am licensed in Nova Scotia, Ontario(M18001555) & in British Columbia(BCFSA #504098).

p.s.s.s You can download my new mortgage app here

38 Months in

Doesn’t mean anything to you? Well it should if you are planning on signing a 5 year fixed mortgage rate in the near future. 38 months is the average when people break their five year fixed mortgages. They could be broken for any number of reasons, marriage, divorce, job loss, job transfer or big promotion. The point is that I want to make the experience of you breaking your mortgage ( if you choose to do so) as painless as possible.

So there are a few things you need to know and I will then explain them a little bit further. Interest rate differential, posted rates, discounted rates and three months interest.

The penalty to break a five year fixed mortgage is either 3 months of interest or interest rate differential, which ever is greater. The formula to calculate out this penalty varies greatly between lenders, where most of the big 5 banks using posted rates in their calculation and the broker channel using discounted rates.

Since variable rates are tied to the Bank of Canada prime lending rate and these are short term investments, the penalty to break a variable is based on three months interest.

Five year fixed mortgages on the other hand are based on bond yields. Your lender takes the five year bond yield marks it up then sells it to homeowners as either 5 year posted or discounted rates. Then packages up these mortgages sells them to investors as mortgage backed securities with a guaranteed rate of return over the 5 years. If you break your contact prior to the end of the term you will still owe the bank the missing return, thus the reason the the penalty.

However as I have said not all lenders calculate out the penalty the same way. The big 5 banks use posted rates in their calculation. So I have just run two examples: 1st from big bank blue ( you know who they are), and the 2nd from one of my broker based banks First National. I have used an imaginary start of your mortgage of Feb 26th 2018, 5 year fixed with a rate of 2.79 from both lenders, and a balance of 225,000. Now because they use different rates in their calculation you will have an estimated penalty from big blue bank of $9,925 and an estimated penalty of $2,750 from First National. That’s a difference of $7,175 and yet you both started with the same rate.

This is because the rate you received from Big Blue bank was the posted rate minus a discount, giving you your rate of 2.79. So to figure it out take the non discounted rate from the date your mortgage was advanced, say there is 24 months remaining so the lender will get the rate for the remaining term, and now they get the difference between your non discounted rate and the rate for the remaining term, divide that by 12 to get monthly interest rate and multiply that by 24 the number of months remaining on your term and multiply this by the mortgage amount to get your penalty.

Long story short, if you really must go with a fixed rate then do it with a broker channel lender, if not then variable is defiantly the way to go.

I look forward to hearing from you in regards to your mortgage needs.

Pat

p.s- You can click on this link to start the process whenever you are ready. Schedule your meeting with me here.

p.s.s- I should tell you that I am licensed in Nova Scotia, Ontario(M18001555) & in British Columbia(BCFSA #504098).

Fixed or Variable Rate Mortgage?

“Wow”! You say to your wife as you hit the bakes on the car. “Did you see the mortage rates those guys are advertising”? Your worries are over you’re thinking. Just lock in a rate like that for the next 10 years and you’ve got it made!

 

Not so fast. That rate may not be the one for you. Typically, the lowest available rate – and the one that makes the rate sign look great from the street – will be for a variable or adjustable rate mortgage. That rate has the potential to be like a roller coaster. The posted variable or adjustable rate is the rate that you’re getting today. Unless you have an economic ouija board, you will not be able to predict what kind of ups and downs are ahead of you.

 

Let’s take a closer look. A lender will offer different rates for different types of mortgages. The rates are determined based on financial risk to the institution and to you. When a customer is willing to take on the risk, they are rewarded with a lower rate. If the lender is taking on the risk ( by that I mean that the customer is promised a particular rate for a set period of time regardless what happens in the market) then the rate is higher. The loner the term then the higher the risk for the financial institution. 

 

So how do you decide? Fixed rate mortgages, because they require a low risk tolerance are usually better suited to first time home owners or those who do not keep an eye on the financial markets. 

Ask your self these questions:  

Do you like or need to know exactly what your payment is going to be over a long period of time?

Do you want to avoid the need to constantly watch rates?

Do you prefer the piece of mind of set it and forget it?

If you answered “yes” to all or most of these questions, then a more fiscally conservative fixed rate may be best option for you.

 

A variable or adjustable rate mortgage is best suited for people who have a flexible budget and can tolerate higher risk. Ask yourself these questions:

Do you watch market conditions?

Could you handle any sudden rate increases that would increase your payments?

Would you take a lower rate if it meant the possibility of your payment changing several times over the life of your term?

If you answered “yes” to all or most of these questions then a variable or adjustable rate may be the best option for you.

 

Some lenders offer a special promotional or teaser rate for the first few months of a variable rate’s term. Ask your mortgage professional how this could be good for you in the long term. Also discuss what your rate will be based on, will it be prime, prime minus   .3, .5 or .8%. Also you should know that most lenders will offer you an option to lock in your variable rate to a fixed rate at any time for the remaining portion of your term or for a longer term. 

If the uncertainty  of going with a floating rate will cause you to have sleepless nights, then that is not the option for you. In fact many Canadians choose the security of a fixed rate mortgage. They know exactly how much they will pay over the term of their mortgage, and they can plain accordingly with not financial surprises. However if rates do drop, then you committed to the promise that you have already made. You should know this that during the past 10 years 5 year fixed rates have averaged 5.5% while variable rates have averaged 5%. As a mortgage professional I can help you make the best choice, call me so I can find out what works for you.

 

Cheers,

 

Pat