Fixed or Variable Rate Mortgage?

“Wow”! You say to your wife as you hit the bakes on the car. “Did you see the mortage rates those guys are advertising”? Your worries are over you’re thinking. Just lock in a rate like that for the next 10 years and you’ve got it made!

 

Not so fast. That rate may not be the one for you. Typically, the lowest available rate – and the one that makes the rate sign look great from the street – will be for a variable or adjustable rate mortgage. That rate has the potential to be like a roller coaster. The posted variable or adjustable rate is the rate that you’re getting today. Unless you have an economic ouija board, you will not be able to predict what kind of ups and downs are ahead of you.

 

Let’s take a closer look. A lender will offer different rates for different types of mortgages. The rates are determined based on financial risk to the institution and to you. When a customer is willing to take on the risk, they are rewarded with a lower rate. If the lender is taking on the risk ( by that I mean that the customer is promised a particular rate for a set period of time regardless what happens in the market) then the rate is higher. The loner the term then the higher the risk for the financial institution. 

 

So how do you decide? Fixed rate mortgages, because they require a low risk tolerance are usually better suited to first time home owners or those who do not keep an eye on the financial markets. 

Ask your self these questions:  

Do you like or need to know exactly what your payment is going to be over a long period of time?

Do you want to avoid the need to constantly watch rates?

Do you prefer the piece of mind of set it and forget it?

If you answered “yes” to all or most of these questions, then a more fiscally conservative fixed rate may be best option for you.

 

A variable or adjustable rate mortgage is best suited for people who have a flexible budget and can tolerate higher risk. Ask yourself these questions:

Do you watch market conditions?

Could you handle any sudden rate increases that would increase your payments?

Would you take a lower rate if it meant the possibility of your payment changing several times over the life of your term?

If you answered “yes” to all or most of these questions then a variable or adjustable rate may be the best option for you.

 

Some lenders offer a special promotional or teaser rate for the first few months of a variable rate’s term. Ask your mortgage professional how this could be good for you in the long term. Also discuss what your rate will be based on, will it be prime, prime minus   .3, .5 or .8%. Also you should know that most lenders will offer you an option to lock in your variable rate to a fixed rate at any time for the remaining portion of your term or for a longer term. 

If the uncertainty  of going with a floating rate will cause you to have sleepless nights, then that is not the option for you. In fact many Canadians choose the security of a fixed rate mortgage. They know exactly how much they will pay over the term of their mortgage, and they can plain accordingly with not financial surprises. However if rates do drop, then you committed to the promise that you have already made. You should know this that during the past 10 years 5 year fixed rates have averaged 5.5% while variable rates have averaged 5%. As a mortgage professional I can help you make the best choice, call me so I can find out what works for you.

 

Cheers,

 

Pat

Appeal court ruled that ABCP restructuring is legal!

Investors are left out in the cold while the banks and credit union’s receive protection form possible lawsuits regarding the securitization of Asset Backed Commercial Paper or ABCP. The good news is the the plan to restructure the ABCP market can now go ahead. For the complete news story from the source click here other wise this is what this means to you, the mortgage holder or potential mortgage holder. 

Once this is all behind us lenders should be able to securitize their ABCP and as a result offer us the options that we want for our financing needs. This is what I would like to see happen but only time will tell.

Cheers,

Pat

 

It's not me, it's the economy!

According to an article in the Globe and Mail this morning it says we are carrying too much debt in comparison to our assets. However don’t worry CIBC conomist Benjamin Tal said that it is because of the economy! So let me get this straight, we are spending more than we make, putting ourselves deeper in debt and it is not really our fault it is the economy. He is right about one thing, the economy is not as rosy as it was just few short years ago. That should not be an excuse to over do it! What people fail to realize is that we make this economy go round, and if we are forced to cut back our spending to keep up with our debt service needs, what will happen then?

The point that I am trying to make is this, we are responsible for our own situation. We are where we are because of the choices that we have made, good or bad. Some thing that I have just read recently sums this all up ” We are not our circumstances, our circumstances are us! When we change, then our circumstances change”. If we want things to change, then we must first change!

Cheers,

Pat

 

Houses still selling, but for less!

In a report today from the Canadian Real Estate Association, it says that homes in Canada are still selling. In fact sales increased .1% from April to May of this year. However the downside is that the average price of these homes have dropped 3.6%. Even with the drop in values, the association does not sees us experiencing the same declines that our American friends are suffering through right now. 

So what does this all mean? It is a better time to buy, in certain markets the house that you like is now worth less, allowing you to get it at a discount. However for the homeowner, if you really have to sell, you have to be open to getting less for your home that you originally had expected. 

Cheers,

Pat

Many Canadians oppose tougher mortgage rules!

The great National Post had an article today that said about 25% of Canadian’s polled do not agree with the federal goverment steping in and changing the mortgage rules. In case you have forgotten click here to see an earlier post. 

I have to mention that the poll was conducted by Angus Reid for ResMor Trust Company. Surprisingly 45% agree with the new rules, and when you factor in current renters, the support falls to 25%. This is the group that is affected the most by the new changes. As it takes away a lot of options for them when it comes time for them to look at get out of renting and buy a home.

Our fantastic government apparently thinks that we were too close to acting like our neighbors to the south. It is true we had a lot of sub prime players in our market the past few years. However we did not have the no doc, qualify on teaser rate no down payment mortgages some of our southern neighbors had available.  

I am sure you have an opinion. You should voice it too. Send your comments to Finance Minister Jim Flaherty by clicking on this link. 

 

Cheers,

Pat

Debt outpaces home value for one-third of new owners!

Bloomberg News

Almost one-third of U.S. homeowners who bought in the last five years now owe more on their mortgages than their properties are worth, according to Zillow.com, an Internet provider of home valuations.

Home prices fell 9.9 per cent in the second quarter from a year earlier, giving 29 per cent of owners negative equity, said Zillow, the Seattle-based service that offers values for more than 80 million homes. For those who bought at the 2006 peak of the housing market, 45 per cent are now under water, Zillow said.

Negative equity and declining prices contribute to the foreclosure rate because some homeowners don’t have the cash to pay off the mortgage and end up surrendering their homes to the bank that holds the loan, said Stan Humphries, Zillow’s vice-president of data and analytics.

“For homeowners who need to sell, this is a gravely serious situation,” Mr. Humphries said. “It can also be harmful to communities where the number of unsold homes adds more to inventory and puts downward pressure on prices.”

Almost one-quarter of U.S. homes sold in the past year were for a loss, Zillow said.

In a regulatory filing late Monday, Countrywide Financial Corp. said thousands of borrowers with $25.4-billion in adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) owe almost as much as their homes are worth.

As of June 30, the typical Countrywide borrower owed 95 per cent of the value of his home, up from 76 per cent when the loan was made, the company said.

Seventy-two per cent of its borrowers were making less than full interest payments, and 12.4 per cent were at least 90 days delinquent.

According to Zillow, the highest percentages of homeowners with negative equity were located in California. In four of the state’s metropolitan areas – Stockton, Modesto, Merced and Vallejo-Fairfield – the number of homeowners whose mortgage debts exceeded the values of their properties topped 90 per cent, Zillow said.

In five more California areas – the Inland Empire (Riverside-San Bernardino), Bakersfield, Yuba City, El Centro and Madera – more than 80 per cent of mortgages topped values.

In Stockton and Modesto, more than half the sales in the second quarter were of foreclosed homes, Zillow said. Almost 15 per cent of sales nationwide were foreclosures, the company said.

Prices fell on a year-over-year basis in 140 out of 165 markets, Zillow said.

The 9.9-per-cent decline in home values was the largest on a year-over-year basis in at least 12 years, Zillow said. The median home price of $206,919 (U.S.) was the lowest since the fourth quarter of 2004, the company said.

“Sellers are starting to adjust their expectations,” said Zillow chief financial officer Spencer Rascoff. “More sellers accepting a loss is actually a sign of optimism. It means that the transactions might start happening. There are so many sales contingent upon the buyer selling their home.”

 

Even though this article is about the US market, it just goes to show the state of the over all market. I have sold many 100% loans to clients in the past. Now our market is more stable in most places and still increasing in all but a few locations, but this does not mean that Canadian consumers do more owe more than the value of their principal residence. Many do when you take in to consideration their mortgage, line of credit, credit cards, car loans and other debts. We have morphed into a live for today spending society. We need to realize that there are consequences. For the economies to improve we must first improve our own finances. How can we expect the government to balance the books if we can not balance our own. 

Cheers,

Pat

Why the Sub Prime market failed!

The Globe and Mail has done a great job telling the story of the collapse of the Sub Prime Mortgage market. You can read the whole story here or hang out here for my summary.

When the real estate market in the US was extremely hot a few short years ago. People were getting loans to buy homes with no documentation, less than stellar credit, financing more than the purchase price, qualifying for the loan based on a discounted teaser rate and investors were buying these loans up like they were going out of style. They were betting that the market would never cool off and home values would continue to rise, probably using the old adage ” they are not making any more real estate”. However what they failed to realize is that some of these people could not afford to continue making payments. 

Reality set in last year when investors started to loose interest in buying ABCP from lenders whose pools of mortgages presented too high a risk. This combined with adjustable rate mortgages resetting to higher limits forcing people into foreclosure, created the perfect storm in the real estate market. People were loosing their homes, investors were loosing the shirts and those on the sidelines were unable to get in the game as sub prime and prime lenders were dropping like flies. 

The end result is that the consumer has fewer options available to them for financing their home. However the strange part of it is that there is a silver lining. The lenders with questionable lending practices are now gone and homes that were out of the reach of some people are becoming a possibility. So do your home work and consult an investment advisor like my friend Steve 

before investing your hard earned money and when you buy your house make sure you leave your self room to live as well.

Cheers,

Pat

 

Debt reduction will help secure couple's retirement!

Globe and Mail Update

In British Columbia, a couple we’ll call Sylvia, 48, and Henry, 49, have an annual combined gross income of $80,000. They have a house they figure is worth $469,000, a couple of cats, no kids and a life they feel is constrained by lack of money. They aspire to helping others more than to building up wealth, but they would like to improve their standard of living.

“We would like to make improvements to our house and yard, take a tropical vacation once every year or two, and we want to replace our 22-year-old car,” Sylvia says. “But should we pay off our mortgage sooner?”

WHAT OUR EXPERT SAYS

Facelift asked Derek Moran, head of Smarter Financial Planning Ltd. in Kelowna, B.C., to work with Sylvia and Henry to help them balance debt management and spending, the core of their issues.

“The couple want a financially more comfortable life,” Mr. Moran explains.

“They have no aspirations to be rich, nor are they in a hurry to retire. But Sylvia’s work as a nurse can be physical and even potentially injurious. She wants to quit work before that happens – age 60 appeals to her. Henry, a social worker, is content to work to age 65. That is the easy part. The harder part is to manage their balance sheet.”

Assets under their control include their house and $169,000 of registered retirement savings plans. Their liabilities consist of their mortgage, $128,337 with a 4-per-cent rate of interest, and a $36,690 line of credit with interest at prime – currently 4.75 per cent.

They should focus on a strategy for debt reduction, Mr. Moran says.

First, pay off the line of credit. That will take 21/2 years if interest rates stay the same. Then the couple can shift the monthly $1,189 payment they make on their line of credit to accelerate payments on their mortgage, currently $1,686 a month. That will save them $5,040 in total interest and enable them to pay off the house two years sooner than the 71/2 years left on its amortization, the planner estimates.

After the mortgage is retired, which should be in 51/2 years, they can begin to build up non-registered savings with the $2,875 a month ($34,500) that they will have been paying on the mortgage. After five years, assuming savings grow at 6 per cent a year and inflation is 3 per cent a year, savings should total $183,165 in 2008 dollars on a pretax basis. After 10 years on the same basis, the account would add up to $395,504, the planner says. This fund would cover house repairs, travel, a new car and more.

Sylvia and Henry are paying $96.35 a month or $1,156.20 a year for mortgage life insurance sold by their bank. This is a very high cost for a policy that can never pay more than the declining balance of the mortgage, Mr. Moran notes. A conventional 10-year term policy sold by an independent agent could replace the bank-issued coverage for $54 a month and offer a rising benefit to the couple as the mortgage is paid down. The couple could switch to the less-expensive term policy and save $508 a year, he explains.

There are other economies that the couple can make to increase their investable cash flow. They have bills of $200 a month for care of two cats. Pets are an emotional issue, but Henry and Sylvia could try to find less costly ways of caring for them. They could also rent out a basement suite at an estimated $700 a month. That might impair their privacy, but the cash flow would pay for the lease cost of a very good car or a fine annual holiday. As well, getting a job closer to home would help Henry cut the cost of his one-hour daily round-trip commute.

Henry and Sylvia have each built up credits in employment-related pension plans.

Henry is entitled to $6,024 a year as early as age 55 from a previous job. At age 60, Sylvia can take a pension of $18,876 a year with a bridge of $6,288 a year to the earlier of her death or age 65, a total of $25,164.

When they turn 65, Henry will be eligible for full Canada Pension Plan benefits of $10,615 a year and full Old Age Security payments, currently $6,070 a year. Sylvia will be entitled to 90 per cent of CPP benefits, $9,554 a year. As well, she will receive $6,070 in OAS benefits a year.

The couple currently add $700 a month to their registered savings. If they maintain that rate of savings, then, including their present $169,000 of RRSPs, they would have $341,520 in 2008 dollars of registered savings by the time Sylvia could retire at age 60, assuming that assets grow at 6 per cent a year and that inflation runs at 3 per cent a year. That capital would support withdrawals of $17,425 a year until Sylvia turns 90.

Adding up all public and employment pensions and their RRSP/RRIF income, the couple will have $74,898 of pretax retirement income in 2008 dollars, Mr. Moran estimates. Income from their non-registered savings can add to their retirement cash flow.

“If Sylvia can make it to age 60 without serious injury and Henry can work to age 65, their retirement looks reasonably bright,” Mr. Moran says. “With their debts paid and no daily commutes, their disposable income will be more than they have now.”

 

This is a great article. It shows what proper financial planning can do for you. Although I am not a CFP I would caution putting all your nest eggs inside your Registered Retirement Plan. They are planning on best case scenario, if something were to happen to either person the survivor would be heavily taxed if they took money out of the plan. Consult your CFP for all your investment advice.

Cheers,

Pat

 

How ordinary investors got sold on ABCP!

It’s been a year since the ABCP market seized up and a rescue committee set out to salvage $33-billion in notes. A Globe and Mail investigation has found that breakdowns occurred throughout the financial system. On Saturday, the story of how the retail brokerage industry lost its way. On Monday, the two-part package explores the role of regulators

 

Friday, August 08, 2008

Throughout his life, Alan Jones’s father invested his money conservatively, favouring bonds and GICs and avoiding even mutual funds as too risky.

When he died in late 2006 at age 87, Alan Jones and his sister decided to continue with the conservative strategy to ensure their mother’s retirement income would be safe. In the spring of 2007, they moved more than $500,000 into three short-term investment trusts, assured by their investment adviser that the funds were guaranteed by big banks and had the highest possible credit rating.

“It was never called asset-backed commercial paper,” Mr. Jones said. “I’d never even heard that term until August.”

Within a few months, the Nanaimo, B.C., wholesale nursery worker would learn that his mother’s investments were caught up in a national meltdown affecting the market for non-bank asset-backed commercial paper – an obscure investment product many other retail investors had never heard of either.

Guilt was just one of the emotions that racked Mr. Jones, whose mother died at age 92, just three months after the ABCP market seized up.

“I was a little bit angry, but more disturbed and embarrassed, and obviously worried,” he recalls.

Over the year since the ABCP crisis hit, both regulators and insiders in the investment industry have heard hundreds of similar stories from individual investors.

One of the biggest surprises to emerge from the almost year-long restructuring process has been the discovery that so many ordinary, retail investors owned third-party ABCP – a complex product originally created for institutional buyers and sold in the so-called “exempt” market, which means it receives virtually no regulatory scrutiny.

At least 2,000 retail investors owned the paper, based on investment firms’ disclosures. While that’s a tiny number compared with the more than two million people estimated to have full-service brokerage accounts in Canada, the financial pain and stress for each of those holders has been intense.

Interviews with retail ABCP holders paint a consistent picture of ultraconservative investors seeking safe vehicles for their money. Most went to their financial advisers asking for GICs, treasury bills or similar products. Instead, they ended up with a product that, despite guarantees and high ratings, collapsed when the market was blindsided by the credit crunch because the backing banks that were supposed to support the paper used an out clause.

Since the non-bank ABCP market collapsed last summer, teams of lawyers and top financial industry players have battled through high-stakes negotiations to try to restructure $33-billion worth of notes. A proposal received court approval in June, but it remains tied up in an appeal by corporate investors and will need a ruling by the Ontario Court of Appeal before it proceeds.

As the saga limps closer to a resolution, investors look for answers and where to lay blame. They have lots of suspects to choose from in the financial system, ranging from their brokers to regulators and the bond raters that facilitated the sale of ABCP, all the way to the companies that manufactured these instruments in the first place.

The customers relied on their brokers. Brokers, in turn, say they relied on their firms’ stamps of approval to market the product. The firms involved in selling the paper say they placed their faith almost entirely in the top-tier ratings the products had received from debt-rating agency DBRS Ltd. And DBRS says it believed the paper was being sold in the exempt market to sophisticated investors.

As good as GICs

One common theme among retail ABCP investors is that most report they were pitched the product as something that was the equivalent of plain-vanilla GICs – fixed-term deposits with guaranteed principal protection and a set rate of return.

ABCP notes, while highly rated by DBRS Ltd., had no outright guarantee that the principal would be returned. Their interest payments and return of principal depended on the performance of a portfolio of assets underlying the notes. In some cases, those assets were familiar types such as credit card receivables and mortgages. For most of the frozen paper, however, the assets were far more complex financial derivatives.

There was a form of guarantee. Big banks such as Deutsche Bank AG and Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce were under contract to buy the paper from investors if nobody else would, but when the market froze, most of the backing banks used a loophole in the contracts to avoid paying.

Gary Carter, 75, of Sahtlam, B.C., says he bought ABCP from an adviser at Credential Securities Inc., investing a big portion of his retirement savings.

“Like everybody else, it was sold to me as a GIC,” he says. “I’ve been a logger all my life, and I had sort of a rapport with a lady at Credential, and I guess I had too much trust, because when you don’t know a whole lot about it, you just put your faith in.”

Mr. Carter says he would not have bought ABCP if he had understood it was not entirely safe.

“I would not have bought it if there was any risk, especially when you’re getting, what, around 4 per cent? If you’re going to go speculative, you get paid for it.”

Credential said it is not appropriate to comment on individual situations.

Mark Wasserman, a 54-year-old vice-president of marketing in Montreal, says he bought the paper from a broker at Canaccord Capital Inc. who, he says, used ABCP as a product interchangeable with a GIC.

He alleges his adviser put his money into ABCP without his written permission.

“He had free rein to put my cash assets into no-risk investments, that was the deal I had: ‘If it’s no-risk, you don’t have to ask me; if it’s risk, you have to ask me,’” Mr. Wasserman said.

Documents support a wide array of anecdotal stories collected by The Globe and Mail that ABCP was routinely compared with GICs by financial advisers.

One illustration of the sales process can be seen in an e-mail sent to investors on Aug. 1 last year. It contains an investment pitch from former Canaccord Capital vice-president Mark Hewett, who explained to his clients that his firm had obtained a block of ABCP issued by Planet Trust.

Planet Trust was among the trusts that Toronto-based Coventree set up for its ABCP program, which had more than $16-billion outstanding in August. Each trust would issue commercial paper to investors, and use the incoming money to fund the purchase of assets that would back the paper.

The e-mail, with the subject line “money market rates – higher than 1-year GICs,” explains the benefits of Planet’s ABCP compared to GICs.

“Liquidity: You can sell the Planet Trust at any time before maturity. GICs are non-redeemable,” the e-mail states.

“Protection of the capital. The rating on the Planet Trust is AAA credit. GICs are only insured up to $100,000.”

Canaccord chief operating officer Mark Maybank said the e-mail stemmed from an internal company communiqué letting advisers know the features of the product. He said it is common practice to compare investments with other, similar options, so it was not misleading to compare ABCP to a GIC.

“It is the role of the adviser to assess a broad range of investment products, so I don’t think there was anything necessarily inappropriate or factually incorrect in that e-mail,” Mr. Maybank said.

It is only with the benefit of hindsight, he adds, that people have questioned the appropriateness of ABCP products for conservative investors.

“These money market vehicles were accepted in the marketplace as short-term, conservative protection of capital or protection of principal and fit those types of client profiles,” he says.

Calgary ABCP investor Brian Hunter, who has formed an association of small ABCP investors, is not sympathetic to that argument.

He believes firms like Canaccord should have done more to analyze and understand ABCP before recommending it to retail clients, noting that even some credit-rating agencies would not rate the product because they did not think bank liquidity guarantees were strong enough protections.

“It should never have been sold to retail,” he says. “Whether it should have been sold to anybody at all is a question, but certainly not to retail and not as a replacement for – or described in some cases as better than – GICs or [banker’s acceptances]. What were they thinking?”

Mr. Hunter heard the pitch himself when he first invested in asset-backed commercial paper in early 2007. The Calgary oil and gas engineer had never heard of ABCP before his broker recommended the product – and he didn’t even know he had bought it at the time.

He said he just wanted a safe place to park about $600,000 in cash during a period of stock market volatility.

“I was just told it was a T-bill equivalent product,” he says.

He said he only learned afterward that he even held ABCP, and subsequently learned that his so-called “asset-backed” paper also was not backed by real assets but by complex synthetic derivatives.

Even if he had been inclined to check into it at the time, Mr. Hunter believes he likely wouldn’t have learned much because ABCP was sold as a so-called exempt product, which means there was no requirement to give a prospectus to investors explaining its details.

“The reality was with the due diligence, you weren’t able to do it because there was no prospectus, there was nothing,” he said.

Now, after months of intensive research into the ABCP market, Mr. Hunter says he feels Canaccord, and indeed the whole financial sector, developed a “cavalier” attitude toward ABCP by 2007.

“The risk associated with this should have been recognized by Canaccord’s risk management team,” he argues. “Having that kind of risk on your balance sheet, without taking a hard look at it, is completely ridiculous. They just dropped the ball on this.”

Earlier this spring, Canaccord and Credential retail investors involved in the ABCP restructuring process learned they will be repaid their funds. The repayment, however, has faced a lengthy delay due to a court challenge launched by corporate note holders who are opposing terms of the proposed restructuring plan. Investors still don’t know when they will see their money.

Angela Speller, a 62-year-old retiree in Victoria, says she fears the matter may be appealed to the Supreme Court of Canada, leaving she and her husband waiting years to access their entire retirement nest egg of almost $1-million.

She says they invested their life savings in ABCP notes with a triple-A rating after their financial adviser assured them that “if these fail, the government of Canada would fail.”

With two adult children in university, and only a small pension to live on, the Spellers say they may not be starving, but they need their money.

“Some of us need these savings for dental work, medical expenses, education, and vehicles that are falling apart,” she says.

Who started all this?

When ABCP got its start in Canada in the late 1980s, the aim was to create a way for big lenders to offload loans from the balance sheets – mortgages, credit card receivables – and in the process to create a product that would be marketed to major investors.

The originators of the first paper were financial types at the securities arms of banks such as CIBC and Bank of Montreal. The banks won because they got cash up front by selling their loans, rather than having to wait around to collect on them, which also freed up the banks to make new loans.

The buyers, mostly big institutional investors in the early days, got a few more fractions of a percentage point in yield than they would get by purchasing more traditional assets such as T-bills or corporate commercial paper. That higher yield became increasingly appealing over the past decade of low interest rates in Canada.

But as ABCP became more popular, the industry also changed profile.

Independent players such as Coventree Inc. began to sprout up, seeking to profit from the market. Coventree and other so-called sponsors such as Newshore Financial Corp. and National Bank of Canada would seek out third-party assets, package them up and sell them as commercial paper.

And as the players changed, so did the product. From about 2003, a profusion of ABCP flowed forth that was backed not by traditional financial assets but by enormously complex financial derivatives, creating what has now become clear was a far riskier product than it had been previously.

In 2003, for example, about $5-billion of ABCP backed by derivatives was outstanding in Canada, jumping to $35-billion just before the market seized up in 2007. From a small sliver four years earlier, derivative-backed ABCP grew to about 30 per cent of the total ABCP market.

A final stage in the evolution was the swelling number of retail investors moving into the product.

The retail trend is hard to track because there is no central clearing agency to record the holders. But some companies have confirmed they began selling ABCP to retail clients only in the past few years.

For instance, Credential Securities Inc. – an investment dealer for the Canadian credit union system – began selling third-party ABCP in July of 2006. “With an R-1 High rating, ABCP was widely viewed to be of high credit quality, it offered a good yield and was available to meet short-term investment needs of clients,” officials at Credential said in an e-mailed response to questions from The Globe.

More than 30 retail ABCP investors told The Globe they bought their paper in 2006 or 2007. None had purchased any in 2005 or earlier.

By last summer, it turns out, thousands of retail clients held ABCP investments, although the total number is still not known because some were quietly bought out by their brokerage firms and did not become part of a market restructuring effort led by lawyer Purdy Crawford.

The Crawford committee, launched in September to find a way to restart the seized-up market, had already drafted its restructuring plan earlier this year before even it realized how many individual investors were out there, sources on the committee said.

Mr. Crawford told reporters in Vancouver in April that he only realized slowly during the month of March that there were almost 1,800 retail investors who still held frozen third-party ABCP.

“To be honest, my own understanding was I didn’t know,” he said. “It blew my mind.”

Canaccord started selling ABCP to retail investors in 2004 after having the firm’s product review committee look at the paper, Mr. Maybank says. The company took comfort from its high credit rating, served up by DBRS.

“In 2004, we basically had a policy that allowed it because it was triple-A,” Mr. Maybank said. “There are other things such as lower-rated and junk bonds that were not permitted in the system. But on the back of the triple-A and the R-1(high) ratings, that got it through the committee.”

He said if a product passes the committee, the firm usually lets its investment advisers sell it.Canaccord, founded in Vancouver by entrepreneur Peter Brown, has grown from a small shop with West Coast roots to the country’s largest independent brokerage, with large operations in the United States and Britain.

Mr. Maybank said the firm trained its investment advisers on ABCP through “in-house lunch-and-learns” and by having the company’s fixed-income experts visit large Canaccord branches to do presentations on money market products such as ABCP.

Canaccord also used third-party sources, such as information from ABCP wholesalers like Scotia Capital, and would send DBRS reports on trusts to its investment advisers as part of their training, Mr. Maybank said.

“They have no reason not to rely on DBRS, right? It’s been successfully performing for a number of years and there’s nothing to say not to,” he said.

As for selling Coventree products, the situation was similar, he argues.

“They went public, their share price was performing. They had lots of equity investors and lots of buyers,” he notes. “Everyone looks back with the benefit of hindsight.”

National Bank also relied on DBRS’s rating. ABCP wasn’t subjected to a review by a product committee because it was a short-term product that was highly rated, which made it eligible for distribution by the firm’s money market sales desk, officials at the firm said.

“National Bank Financial, and I think it is fair to say the dealer community, regarded asset-backed commercial paper as a suitable investment for all investors, including retail clients with a conservative investing strategy,” said Ricardo Pascoe, co-CEO of National Bank of Canada’s securities division.

“It offered investors a money market alternative that was among the highest-rated instruments, being both short term and liquid, with returns that were very competitive with other similar instruments.”

Follow the Money:

Who got rich?

While there were profits to be made from selling ABCP products, it’s now clear retail brokerage firms like Canaccord were not making the big money when they sold third-party ABCP products to retail investors.

The creators of the ABCP made their profit thanks to the difference between what the assets earned in interest – the collections on all those loan payments – and the lower rate paid out to buyers of the commercial paper. At National Bank, for example, the firm oversaw trusts that issued about $3-billion of ABCP, which brought in about $15-million a year in revenue.

Some of the profit also went to pay commissions to the securities dealers who sold the product.

A small company like Coventree didn’t have the wherewithal to distribute the product itself, so like any manufacturer, it struck deals with wholesalers.

“It was the highest commission that’s paid to money market dealers for distributing money market paper in Canada, bar none, absolutely,” said David Allan, Coventree’s head of capital markets.

Those wholesalers, such as Scotia Capital, National Bank Financial, HSBC Bank Canada and CIBC World Markets, could sell directly to their own clients, but they also sold ABCP to other companies that wanted to be able to offer the product. Canaccord, for example, got much of its paper from Scotia Capital.

Canaccord didn’t make any significant money from selling ABCP to clients, Mr. Maybank says. The firm received no fees from Coventree for selling the paper because it wasn’t a wholesaler.

For example, in the month and a half from July 1 to the Aug. 13 market meltdown, Canaccord processed more than 2,000 ABCP trades totalling about $300-million for clients, and made a modest $55,000 in gross commissions. In fact, most of the trades – 54 per cent – were done with no commission at all and charged to the client and 82 per cent of the trades didn’t generate enough commission to cover the cost of processing, Mr. Maybank said.

The numbers are similar for National Bank of Canada, which earned little in the way of commissions for selling ABCP to retail investors. Of the 1,175 trades the firm processed for the 340 National retail clients who had their paper frozen, the average commission was tiny – 0.014 per cent of the principal – and 82 per cent of the trades were processed with a commission of $60 or less.

For its part, Credential said “the commission structure was in line with other money market instruments.”

Given the lack of revenue, Canaccord’s investment advisers had nothing in the way of upfront financial incentive to sell ABCP, Mr. Maybank said. But like other products that generate little or no returns – such as banker’s acceptances and government bonds – it was offered because the firm wanted to have a full array of standard options available for its clients, he said.

“We offer a number of products that we don’t make a lot of money on – in some cases next to no money,” he said. “Why do you have them? Because you have to have a range of money market alternatives in your system.”

And brokers at Canaccord have the freedom to choose the best options for their clients, he adds.

“On this one, they weren’t pushed, there was no grid, there was no push for fees on this,” Mr. Maybank says. “The brokers have the ability to choose the best product to suit their client needs. We didn’t say you can’t sell this – but I wish we had.”

By last summer, Canaccord had more than 1,430 retail clients with more than $138-million worth of ABCP, representing about 1 per cent of its total account base. Credential Securities had 335 individual investors with $48-million, meaning less than half of 1 per cent of its customers held ABCP. Credential has investment advisers in more than 135 credit unions in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Ontario.

National Bank of Canada had 340 clients, out of a total of about 150,000 accounts, with about $170-million of affected paper when the market froze. National has already repurchased that paper at par, with accrued interest.

Other individuals – a number never publicized – owned asset-backed commercial paper last summer and had their positions bought out by their brokerage firms.

There were almost 20 firms that reported having clients with frozen third-party ABCP when the Crawford committee hired an independent group, Broadridge Financial Solutions Inc., to assess who held ABCP and how much.

Susan Wolburg Jenah, who heads brokerage industry regulator, the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada, said one firm, whose identity she cannot disclose, approached IIROC last August to seek the regulator’s permission to buy back ABCP from its clients.

The cost raised concerns about the firm’s capital adequacy, but the buyback was allowed.

“They had a reputational issue, and they were trying to do the right thing,” she said.

Surprisingly, even many involved in the creation of ABCP say they only realized earlier this year that hundreds of small investors had money stuck in their product.

One problem may have been the wholesaler system, which meant that the makers of the paper at Coventree and other firms didn’t have a clear idea of who owned the paper. The dealers who directly sold the product were the only participants who knew who was buying it.

Mr. Allan of Coventree said his firm would not have known whether or not the product was being sold to retail investors, “and, honestly, we were finding out with everybody else,” he noted.

“Would we have known about some of the larger institutional investors? Sure. But most of the names, even the corporates, those would not have been names that were known to us.”

An official at rating agency DBRS, who insisted his name not be used, said the firm’s only comment would be to note that third-party ABCP was sold as part of the so-called “exempt” market, so it was intended for sophisticated, experienced investors.

Unfortunately, a growing number were not so sophisticated.

 

Why did I put this article here? Well the mortgages we take out and the ones I sell as a broker are for the large part sold off as ABCP to investors. So you should know what is happening in the market and why your options are now more limited than ever.

Cheers,

Pat

 

The great Canadian housing myth!

It wasn’t that long ago that economists and observers put a brave face on the health of the Canadian housing market, arguing that tighter credit conditions, relatively moderate prices and a healthy economy would keep things humming, even as the U.S. market slid into oblivion.  

Now, there are cracks in this theory: The number of sales is declining even as the number of For Sale signs creeps higher. Are outright price declines next?

That would appear to be the case, judging from the observations put forth by David Wolf, economist at Merrill Lynch Canada – and if the housing market stalls, you can kiss goodbye any pickup in economic growth next year.

“After several years of great strength, the Canadian housing market has weakened materially through the first half of 2008,” he said in a note to clients. “It almost seems as though some time around the beginning of the year, maybe exhausted by the unending media coverage of the U.S. housing crisis, Canadian consumers en masse decided that the domestic market had gone too far.”

But there is more to this downtrend than a shift in consumer sentiment. Mr. Wolf noted that mortgage costs have risen 9 per cent, year-over-year, as of June – the steepest increase in 17 years. At the same time, authorities ended 40-year amortizations, putting the top end at 35 years, and raised minimum down payments to 5 per cent from zero.

Meanwhile, what looked like a reasonably priced market now seems pricey. The ratio of house prices to rents is now 25 per cent above the average. The ratio of house prices to incomes is also a troubling statistic: It is now about 4:1, meaning that the average house price is four-times the average household’s annual income. During the previous cyclical peak, in 1989, the ratio topped out at 3.2:1. Even more troubling, the U.S. market topped out at 3.9:1 in 2006, just before doom set in.

Merrill Lynch’s proprietary models suggested that Canada’s housing market was undervalued by 3.3 per cent in 2007. Scratch that: Thanks to new data, the market was actually overvalued by 7.4 per cent.

“Part of the upward revision is accounted for by the acceleration in house prices last fall beyond our assumptions, and part by the swell in mortgage rates upon the onset of the global credit crisis last summer,” Mr. Wolf said. He believes the housing market is currently 9.2 per cent overvalued.

Does this imply a nasty drop in the months ahead? His best guess is that house prices will flat-line nationally, which implies that some regions of the country will suffer. Regina and Saskatoon, in particular, appear to be 50 per cent overvalued (hint-hint); Vancouver and Victoria are 30 to 35 per cent overvalued.

“As the U.S. experience has shown, it can take several quarters for changes in housing wealth to show up in reduced spending growth,” Mr. Wolf said. “But the direction of the effect is clear. Strong house price appreciation in recent years has no doubt made Canadians feel wealthier and more willing to spend; that will likely be less true ahead.”