What does it mean?

Yesterday for the first time a very long time ( 26 years in-fact) the Bank of Canada raised the key overnight lending rate by 100 basis points or 1 full percentage point. As a result the bank prime lending rate is now 4.7%.

Many of us are now waking up this morning asking what does this all mean and how will it impact me. Firstly if you have a variable rate mortgage your payment has now increased. Those with lines of credit their payments have also increased. Basically if you are looking to borrow money it has now become more expensive. The days of cheap/free money are now officially over.

The Bank of Canada has made these moves in an effort to bring inflation which is now at 40 year highs under control. In-fact just prior to the BOC making the policy announcement yesterday the American CPI numbers were released and they hit 9.1%, which is another 40 year high. Inflation has been driven up by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, consistent supply chain issues and continued Chinese lockdowns.

What the BOC is looking for is for consumers to spend less, thus driving down demand. However if the spending stops too quickly it will just drive us into another recession. Only time will tell how this will all work out but with these rapid increases of rates things may come to a halt pretty quickly.

Today I am thankful for appraisals coming in just in time, the arrival of the warmth of summer and Alpe D’Huez stage of the Tour de France today.

I look forward to hearing from you in regard to your mortgage needs.

Patrick

p.s- You can click on this link to start the process whenever you are ready. Schedule your meeting with me here.

p.s.s- I should tell you that I am licensed in Nova Scotia Brokerage (2021-3000179) Broker (2021-3000180), Ontario(M18001555) & in British Columbia(BCFSA #504098).

p.s.s.s You can download my new mortgage app here

BOC Rate Announcement

The Bank of Canada meets today and will publish their latest policy on interest rates. Most economists are widely expecting a 75 basis points increase similar to what the Federal Reserve did in the US just recently. If this does happen it will be the largest rate increase in over 26 years. Which many believe is required to finely bring our sky high inflation under control.

With the announcement today that the US CPI numbers just hit 9.1% for June which is a 40 year high, it is almost assured that we will have an oversized rate increase.

Well the BOC just exceeded everyone’s expectation by increasing the overnight lending rate by 100 basis points to 2.5%. This as a result will increase the prime lending rate from 3.7% to 4.7%. So those with variable rate mortgages or lines of credit will have their payments increased for the next month. In the policy announcement they BOC stated that CPI has remained high ( in the 8% range) due to the war in Ukraine &supply chain issues that have yet to be resolved.

In the published announcement BOC indicated that this may not be the last of the rate increases and it will depend on the state of the over all economy and how inflation reacts to these changes. The next scheduled meeting is September 7th.

Today I am thankful for my daily motivational quotes my friend Shane sends me on a daily basis, a hill run when I didn’t want do it and date night with my wife last night.

I look forward to hearing from you in regard to your mortgage needs.

Patrick

p.s- You can click on this link to start the process whenever you are ready. Schedule your meeting with me here.

p.s.s- I should tell you that I am licensed in Nova Scotia Brokerage (2021-3000179) Broker (2021-3000180), Ontario(M18001555) & in British Columbia(BCFSA #504098).

p.s.s.s You can download my new mortgage app here

Counting the days

Big events in your life often have you counting down the days till they happen. It could be a wedding, birth of your first child, graduation or a long awaited trip. For the most part the people I am working with are counting down the days till closing on their new homes. So while you are in the final count down, make sure that you keep a few things in min.

  • Call to switch all the services ( phone, power, water & cable)
  • Book a locksmith to re key all the locks
  • Do the final walk through with your Realtor
  • Have your mover’s ready to go
  • Sign all the documents with the lawyer’s office well in advance
  • Do NOT finance anything between when your mortgage has been approved and you get the keys to your new place.
  • Make sure to get your new home insured
  • Pick up the keys from the lawyer on closing day

Today I am thankful for the mood improving benefits of intense exercise, clients who are excited to close and my daughter who was exhausted from camping all weekend.

I look forward to hearing from you in regard to your mortgage needs.

Patrick

p.s- You can click on this link to start the process whenever you are ready. Schedule your meeting with me here.

p.s.s- I should tell you that I am licensed in Nova Scotia Brokerage (2021-3000179) Broker (2021-3000180), Ontario(M18001555) & in British Columbia(BCFSA #504098).

p.s.s.s You can download my new mortgage app here

Fiscal Cliff

The Bank of Canada meets next Wednesday July 13th and it’s widely expected that we will have another rate increase. However the worry is now that the increase will be too large and start to push us into a recessionary environment. Yes still have sky high inflation with the prices of gas and consumer staples still at record levels. However economists are coming out saying that with the recent retreat of the price of oil that other prices will start to recede as well.

So this brings us back to the next potential rate increase. The US federal reserve increased their over night lending rate by 75 basis points just a few weeks ago and since then the expectation has been that the BOC would follow with the same level of rate change. However the hot real estate market has already started to slow down even though we still have a housing shortage. So any over sized rate increase like the Fed did recently will put us that much closer to falling off a fiscal cliff into a recession.

The objective has always been to increase rates enough to allow for a soft landing of the economy. However with CPI figures remaining stubbornly high has forced the BOC and other central banks to be more aggressive in their approach to increasing rates to tackle inflation. This aggressive stance is pushing us ever closer to the edge of a cliff where we fall into a recession.

It’s a balancing act and one false move could be the one that pushes us off the cliff.

Today I am thankful for the rain overnight, my daughter who has cut my hair since the start of the pandemic and active recovery today so training can resume stronger tomorrow.

I look forward to hearing from you in regard to your mortgage needs.

Patrick

p.s- You can click on this link to start the process whenever you are ready. Schedule your meeting with me here.

p.s.s- I should tell you that I am licensed in Nova Scotia Brokerage (2021-3000179) Broker (2021-3000180), Ontario(M18001555) & in British Columbia(BCFSA #504098).

p.s.s.s You can download my new mortgage app here

Reputation Risk

As a brokers we deal with a wide variety of clients, from those seeking A bank lenders, alternative lenders, private mortgages or commercial. Because of this mix, clients come to me with an expansive and diverse background. Occasionally I come across clients who have had less than stellar pasts. I know this because we Google them as well. As a result things that they may not be proud of come up as a result of the search.

While I do this business for the money and because I enjoy it, I also keep a sharp eye my reputation from my lending parters. I will never take on a file of a questionable nature just to get a commission. Life is way too short for that. I also disclose any findings of my background checks on my clients to my lending parters as any potential issues or concerns are best dealt with upfront as apposed to the day of funding.

Clients and lending opportunities come and go on a daily basis and I am not going to throw away my 20 years of doing this and my reputation with my lending partners on a client who wants me to turn a blind eye and just get the deal done. I will disclose fully and honestly the nature of the situation and if the lender is still comfortable with the file then we move toward funding other wise it is on to another file.

Today I am thankful for my relationships with my lending partners, opportunities that exist because of being open and honest and a neighbour willing to join me for a run.

I look forward to hearing from you in regard to your mortgage needs.

Patrick

p.s- You can click on this link to start the process whenever you are ready. Schedule your meeting with me here.

p.s.s- I should tell you that I am licensed in Nova Scotia Brokerage (2021-3000179) Broker (2021-3000180), Ontario(M18001555) & in British Columbia(BCFSA #504098).

p.s.s.s You can download my new mortgage app here

May Inflation Rate

The May inflation rate has just set a record that we have not seen since 1983, which was a rate of 7.7%. Up almost a full percentage point since last month when it was 6.8%. Yes we expected it to be above 7% but not by this much.

The biggest contributor to the increase was the price of gas, which was up 48% compared to a year ago. Increased fuel costs put upward pressure on so many things from food, flights, lumber and any other product that gets shipped is now up as a result.

The next step to help cool the sky high inflation is for the Bank of Canada to increase the rates again. The next meeting is in July and this what I fully expect them to do. The US federal reserve recently announced an oversized rate increase of 75 basis points and this is not out of the realm of possibility for the Bank of Canada at the next meeting.

So what do you do if you are still on a variable rate mortgage. Well the fixed rates have now risen to a point well above the current variable rate and the rate for a 5 year terms is now above 5%, starting at 5.09%. With prime currently at 3.70 and most people at prime -1%, so even if prime increases by 75 basis points the smart at math say to just ride it out and that is what I am going to do. You may decide differently that that is up to you.

I look forward to hearing from you in regard to your mortgage needs.

Patrick

p.s- You can click on this link to start the process whenever you are ready. Schedule your meeting with me here.

p.s.s- I should tell you that I am licensed in Nova Scotia Brokerage (2021-3000179) Broker (2021-3000180), Ontario(M18001555) & in British Columbia(BCFSA #504098).

p.s.s.s You can download my new mortgage app here

Psychological Barrier

A psychological barrier is a commonly held belief that something can’t be done until someone brave enough proves everyone wrong. Take Roger Bannister for example, nobody believed that the human body could be able to run the mile in less than 4 minutes. So on May 6th, 1954 he proved them wrong by running it in 3:59.4. With this barrier broken, the record only stood for 46 days till it was broken again.

The last 10 years or so we were holding onto a psychological belief that interest rates would stay low forever. Thus giving us access to basically cheap money for as long as we wanted. This barrier too was broken this week when the 5 year fixed discounted rate rose above 5%. Our continued inflationary pressures that have pushed prices of food, fuel, housing and now bond rates to new levels.

Just a year ago the 5 year fixed discounted rate was at 2.09%. Today this same product is now at 5.09%. Even with the low rates of last year we were qualifying clients at the stress test rate of 5.25%. Now it’s the contract rate + 2%, so that means to qualify you must stress test at 7.09%. So if you were on the limits of your debt service ratio’s last year to get approved at 500K, you now have to set your sights at a lower price point. Either that or find a co-signer to help you qualify.

Quick note to let you know that it has been since before the financial crisis in 2008 that we had 5 year fixed rates above 5%.

I look forward to hearing from you in regard to your mortgage needs.

Patrick

p.s- You can click on this link to start the process whenever you are ready. Schedule your meeting with me here.

p.s.s- I should tell you that I am licensed in Nova Scotia Brokerage (2021-3000179) Broker (2021-3000180), Ontario(M18001555) & in British Columbia(BCFSA #504098).

p.s.s.s You can download my new mortgage app here

Two important components

There are two very important components when considering private lending to meet your borrowing needs. They are rate and fee’s. There are other important components like loan to value and location but today I want to talk about rate & fee’s.

The rate for a private mortgage is typically interest only for a 1 year period. I usually call these bridge loans as it helps bridge you from one situation to another. The rate determines your carrying costs for the loan. While there are various private lenders out there, the rule of thumb I advise clients is that it will be 1% per month interest only calculated monthly, which works out to 12% per year.

The next part is the fee’s. Which is the basically the cost to obtain the mortgage. Similar to high ratio loans where there is a CHMC premium, for private mortgages the fee is the lender & broker’s cost to arrange, secure and lend the money. In most cases this is added to the loan amount and then the monthly payment is based the principal amount + the fee’s. However these can be also be paid upfront and in full upon closing.

Not all private mortgages are created equal. Make sure that the rate and terms make sense to you. Also because of the rate & fee’s these are never supposed to be long term solution but short term fixes, so treat them as such.

I look forward to hearing from you in regard to your mortgage needs.

Patrick

p.s- You can click on this link to start the process whenever you are ready. Schedule your meeting with me here.

p.s.s- I should tell you that I am licensed in Nova Scotia Brokerage (2021-3000179) Broker (2021-3000180), Ontario(M18001555) & in British Columbia(BCFSA #504098).

p.s.s.s You can download my new mortgage app here

Stress Tested

There were plenty of complaints when the OFSI increased the stress test rate from 4.79% last year to 5.25%. At the time the concern was it would remove a lot of buyers from the housing market and cool things off. Well at least this was the goal but it never happened. In hind sight it was good that the stress test rate was increased as it proved that consumers could afford the higher rates if they happened.

So all those who closed last year and chose a variable rate, remember when you were stress tested it was proven that you could afford the higher rates. While you were loving the fact that your mortgage was in the 1% rate for last year. Now with the recent increases to prime you are still in the mid to high 2% range. Still well below the 5.25% stress test rate.

Now the people who close this year, the stress test rate is no longer 5.25% as it will now be the contract rate + 2%. So a current five year fixed rate of 4.89 now has a stress test rate of 6.89. The variable are tested at 5.25% or the contract rate +2% which ever is greater. That means currently 5.25% is the number for variable.

I look forward to hearing from you in regard to your mortgage needs.

Patrick

p.s- You can click on this link to start the process whenever you are ready. Schedule your meeting with me here.

p.s.s- I should tell you that I am licensed in Nova Scotia Brokerage (2021-3000179) Broker (2021-3000180), Ontario(M18001555) & in British Columbia(BCFSA #504098).

p.s.s.s You can download my new mortgage app here

New Normal?

For the first time in many years the discounted 5 year fixed rate is now just under 5%. The insured rate is 4.59% while the uninsured rate is 4.89%. This is quite the change from over a year ago when it was 5 year rate was just over 2%. This latest rate increase is due to the fact that bond yields ( which are the basis for fixed mortgage rates) have soared over 30 basis points in the last 5 days alone. Up 34 basis points in the last 30 days, with the biggest spike in the last week.

The days of rock bottom low interest rates is now gone. In fact we haven’t had bond yields and interest rates at this level since 2007-2008. Variable rates while still much lower than fixed rates, with the current prime rate at 3.20%, has also been steadily increasing and is expected to increase again at the next Bank of Canada meeting in July.

All this means that we better start to expect that interest rates will be and will stay much higher over the next couple of years. The days of pretty much free money with the low interest rates are gone. It is a good thing that we had the stress test in place over the last couple of years to prepare us for what’s happening now.

I look forward to hearing from you in regard to your mortgage needs.

Patrick

p.s- You can click on this link to start the process whenever you are ready. Schedule your meeting with me here.

p.s.s- I should tell you that I am licensed in Nova Scotia Brokerage (2021-3000179) Broker (2021-3000180), Ontario(M18001555) & in British Columbia(BCFSA #504098).

p.s.s.s You can download my new mortgage app here