Psychological Barrier

A psychological barrier is a commonly held belief that something can’t be done until someone brave enough proves everyone wrong. Take Roger Bannister for example, nobody believed that the human body could be able to run the mile in less than 4 minutes. So on May 6th, 1954 he proved them wrong by running it in 3:59.4. With this barrier broken, the record only stood for 46 days till it was broken again.

The last 10 years or so we were holding onto a psychological belief that interest rates would stay low forever. Thus giving us access to basically cheap money for as long as we wanted. This barrier too was broken this week when the 5 year fixed discounted rate rose above 5%. Our continued inflationary pressures that have pushed prices of food, fuel, housing and now bond rates to new levels.

Just a year ago the 5 year fixed discounted rate was at 2.09%. Today this same product is now at 5.09%. Even with the low rates of last year we were qualifying clients at the stress test rate of 5.25%. Now it’s the contract rate + 2%, so that means to qualify you must stress test at 7.09%. So if you were on the limits of your debt service ratio’s last year to get approved at 500K, you now have to set your sights at a lower price point. Either that or find a co-signer to help you qualify.

Quick note to let you know that it has been since before the financial crisis in 2008 that we had 5 year fixed rates above 5%.

I look forward to hearing from you in regard to your mortgage needs.

Patrick

p.s- You can click on this link to start the process whenever you are ready. Schedule your meeting with me here.

p.s.s- I should tell you that I am licensed in Nova Scotia Brokerage (2021-3000179) Broker (2021-3000180), Ontario(M18001555) & in British Columbia(BCFSA #504098).

p.s.s.s You can download my new mortgage app here

Two important components

There are two very important components when considering private lending to meet your borrowing needs. They are rate and fee’s. There are other important components like loan to value and location but today I want to talk about rate & fee’s.

The rate for a private mortgage is typically interest only for a 1 year period. I usually call these bridge loans as it helps bridge you from one situation to another. The rate determines your carrying costs for the loan. While there are various private lenders out there, the rule of thumb I advise clients is that it will be 1% per month interest only calculated monthly, which works out to 12% per year.

The next part is the fee’s. Which is the basically the cost to obtain the mortgage. Similar to high ratio loans where there is a CHMC premium, for private mortgages the fee is the lender & broker’s cost to arrange, secure and lend the money. In most cases this is added to the loan amount and then the monthly payment is based the principal amount + the fee’s. However these can be also be paid upfront and in full upon closing.

Not all private mortgages are created equal. Make sure that the rate and terms make sense to you. Also because of the rate & fee’s these are never supposed to be long term solution but short term fixes, so treat them as such.

I look forward to hearing from you in regard to your mortgage needs.

Patrick

p.s- You can click on this link to start the process whenever you are ready. Schedule your meeting with me here.

p.s.s- I should tell you that I am licensed in Nova Scotia Brokerage (2021-3000179) Broker (2021-3000180), Ontario(M18001555) & in British Columbia(BCFSA #504098).

p.s.s.s You can download my new mortgage app here

Stress Tested

There were plenty of complaints when the OFSI increased the stress test rate from 4.79% last year to 5.25%. At the time the concern was it would remove a lot of buyers from the housing market and cool things off. Well at least this was the goal but it never happened. In hind sight it was good that the stress test rate was increased as it proved that consumers could afford the higher rates if they happened.

So all those who closed last year and chose a variable rate, remember when you were stress tested it was proven that you could afford the higher rates. While you were loving the fact that your mortgage was in the 1% rate for last year. Now with the recent increases to prime you are still in the mid to high 2% range. Still well below the 5.25% stress test rate.

Now the people who close this year, the stress test rate is no longer 5.25% as it will now be the contract rate + 2%. So a current five year fixed rate of 4.89 now has a stress test rate of 6.89. The variable are tested at 5.25% or the contract rate +2% which ever is greater. That means currently 5.25% is the number for variable.

I look forward to hearing from you in regard to your mortgage needs.

Patrick

p.s- You can click on this link to start the process whenever you are ready. Schedule your meeting with me here.

p.s.s- I should tell you that I am licensed in Nova Scotia Brokerage (2021-3000179) Broker (2021-3000180), Ontario(M18001555) & in British Columbia(BCFSA #504098).

p.s.s.s You can download my new mortgage app here

New Normal?

For the first time in many years the discounted 5 year fixed rate is now just under 5%. The insured rate is 4.59% while the uninsured rate is 4.89%. This is quite the change from over a year ago when it was 5 year rate was just over 2%. This latest rate increase is due to the fact that bond yields ( which are the basis for fixed mortgage rates) have soared over 30 basis points in the last 5 days alone. Up 34 basis points in the last 30 days, with the biggest spike in the last week.

The days of rock bottom low interest rates is now gone. In fact we haven’t had bond yields and interest rates at this level since 2007-2008. Variable rates while still much lower than fixed rates, with the current prime rate at 3.20%, has also been steadily increasing and is expected to increase again at the next Bank of Canada meeting in July.

All this means that we better start to expect that interest rates will be and will stay much higher over the next couple of years. The days of pretty much free money with the low interest rates are gone. It is a good thing that we had the stress test in place over the last couple of years to prepare us for what’s happening now.

I look forward to hearing from you in regard to your mortgage needs.

Patrick

p.s- You can click on this link to start the process whenever you are ready. Schedule your meeting with me here.

p.s.s- I should tell you that I am licensed in Nova Scotia Brokerage (2021-3000179) Broker (2021-3000180), Ontario(M18001555) & in British Columbia(BCFSA #504098).

p.s.s.s You can download my new mortgage app here

Affordability

affordability

noun

  1. The extent to which something is affordable, as measured by its cost relative to the amount that the purchaser is able to pay.

The last few months our affordability has definitely taken a hit. Everything from gas, housing and food is up. There are recent news reports that people are eating less in order to save some money. Yet our pay checks have not kept up with the steady increase of the cost of everything.

In terms of housing and mortgage affordability, things are vastly different over the last 24 months. We have had a stress test for mortgage qualification, this is in order to protect us from rising rates so we will still be able to afford to make the payment. Not sure that they had this current market in mind when they came up with them.

At the start of last year our qualification rate was 4.79%. This changed last spring when the housing market went into overdrive and they increased it to 5.25%. The thought was that this increase would cool the market, in my mind there was no effect. Now there is another part of the stress test which says that the qualification rate will be either the stress test rate or the benchmark rate +2%. Now that we are in a much higher interest rate environment, it is now the latter as 5 year fixed rates are starting at 4.29%, so this makes the qualification rate now 6.29%.

With these higher qualification rates and still high housing prices, this has now priced many out of the housing market. For example people who have lived here in Halifax all their lives can not afford to buy in the neighbourhoods where they grew up. Yet there is still more talk about future interest rate increases by the Bank of Canada to help curb inflation.

So with our current inflation rate still sky high, talks of more rate increases and the Russian invasion of Ukraine still dragging on, we may have to do our best keep our spending in check until this all starts to settle down.

Patrick

p.s- You can click on this link to start the process whenever you are ready. Schedule your meeting with me here.

p.s.s- I should tell you that I am licensed in Nova Scotia Brokerage (2021-3000179) Broker (2021-3000180), Ontario(M18001555) & in British Columbia(BCFSA #504098).

p.s.s.s You can download my new mortgage app here

BOC June Meeting

The Bank of Canada is widely expect to raise interest rates again this morning. If they come through with another 50 basis points increase, this will be the 3rd increase in a row, amounting to 125 basis points in increases this year.

Yes it is true that inflation is at 30 year highs, the cost of housing has increased dramatically recently and the price of oil is through the roof. However the increase to the over night lending rate which then increased the prime rate that we see as consumers just further increases our housing costs. All of this is supposed to cause consumers to spend less money as the costs of borrowing has increased.

There is only so much discretionary spending that we can cut back as the costs of everything has gone up recently from food, to gas and now higher borrowing costs for housing. All this is blamed on supply chain problems due to Covid shut downs and more recently the war in Ukraine.

One of the best ways to insulate yourself against any other further prices increases is to learn how to better manager your money. The single best program out there is called YNAB, which stands for You Need A Budget. Instead of X amount into the future for Y, you give ever dollar you make a job and budget only what you make.

As expect the Bank of Canada increased the over night lending rate by 50 basis points, thus increasing the prime rate to 3.70%. However those of us on a variable rate mortgage are still better off then those who have switched to a fixed.

I look forward to hearing from you in regard to your mortgage needs.

Patrick

p.s- You can click on this link to start the process whenever you are ready. Schedule your meeting with me here.

p.s.s- I should tell you that I am licensed in Nova Scotia Brokerage (2021-3000179) Broker (2021-3000180), Ontario(M18001555) & in British Columbia(BCFSA #504098).

p.s.s.s You can download my new mortgage app here

Peak Rate

People are complaining about how high mortgage rates have risen in the past 6 months. While not realizing how good that we had it over the past 3 years, where fixed rates dropped as low as 1.79% for 5 years.

Things have changed a lot with the increases in bond yields which drives the fixed rates. In the last four months alone the fixed rates have gone from 2.89% at the end of January to now having 5 year fixed rates as low as 4.29%. That is an increase of 140 basis points while the variable rates have increased by 75 basis points.

However don’t forget that the Bank of Canada meets next week to set the next over night rate and most if not all economists are predicting another 50 basis points increase. Some economists are saying that we may be approaching Peak interest rate, however predictions are just that and ultimately the market will decide.

I look forward to hearing from you in regard to your mortgage needs.

Patrick

p.s- You can click on this link to start the process whenever you are ready. Schedule your meeting with me here.

p.s.s- I should tell you that I am licensed in Nova Scotia Brokerage (2021-3000179) Broker (2021-3000180), Ontario(M18001555) & in British Columbia(BCFSA #504098).

p.s.s.s You can download my new mortgage app here

New Record

The consumer price index ( how we track inflation) hit a 31 year high for the month of April at 6.8%. Up .1% from March. The increase is a result of higher food and housing costs. The causes of this stem from the war in Ukraine and supply chain disruptions in China due to Covid. While global crude oil prices declined in April, they have vastly increased in May so we may be in for another record for the May report.

As a result of the record high CPI we are pretty much guranteed for another Bank of Canada rate increase when they meet next on June 3rd. What we don’t know is if it will be another 50 basis points like the last time or just 25 basis points like the first increase we had earlier this year.

So while the costs of everything in life has been steadily rising, the wages that we are getting paid is not keeping up with the high costs of living. They did go up 3.3% as compared to last year but this is still not keeping pace with the costs to keep food on the table so sooner or later something will have to give.

I look forward to hearing from you in regard to your mortgage needs.

Patrick

p.s- You can click on this link to start the process whenever you are ready. Schedule your meeting with me here.

p.s.s- I should tell you that I am licensed in Nova Scotia Brokerage (2021-3000179) Broker (2021-3000180), Ontario(M18001555) & in British Columbia(BCFSA #504098).

p.s.s.s You can download my new mortgage app here

Smart Advice

It’s not often when I will link to another article from someone else in my field. However I am going to do that today. Fellow mortgage broker David Larock wrote a compelling piece in move smartly about the current fixed vs variable debate. In the article he makes sound points as to why I am personally going to stick with my own variable rate mortgage.

The best thing that we can do right now is to educate ourselves and make smart decisions. His article provides lots of great information about the current fixed vs variable debate and why in my opinion it may be best to ride it out. However if the anxiety of the recent rate increase and the news about more rate increases is keeping you up then do what will allow you to sleep better and just lock it in.

I look forward to hearing from you in regard to your mortgage needs.

Patrick

p.s- You can click on this link to start the process whenever you are ready. Schedule your meeting with me here.

p.s.s- I should tell you that I am licensed in Nova Scotia Brokerage (2021-3000179) Broker (2021-3000180), Ontario(M18001555) & in British Columbia(BCFSA #504098).

p.s.s.s You can download my new mortgage app here

Predictions

After reading the Bank of Canada’s press release after it’s last rate announcement on April 13th, it is quite clear that they believe that we will be in a higher inflationary zone till almost 2024. What this means is that we have definitely not see the last of the Bank of Canada rate hikes. Our CPI numbers were released after the BOC met and blew away their prediction of a 6% rate when we hit 6.7%.

Some in my field are even saying that the BOC’s target for the prime rate will hit 5.20% before things start to settle down. Just so you don’t have to do the math that is a full 200 basis points or 2% higher that we are right now. By reaching those rates it will also take us closer to parity with the 5 year fixed rate when the discount to prime has been calculated in for clients.

That being said I am still going to stick it out with my variable rate, however clients who are in a variable rate have to decide themselves if they will sleep better at night by increasing their rate by switching from a variable to a fixed. The current spread in the difference is between 1.5 – 2% from the variable to the fixed, but without the rate volatility that the variable is going through.

I look forward to hearing from you in regard to your mortgage needs.

Patrick

p.s- You can click on this link to start the process whenever you are ready. Schedule your meeting with me here.

p.s.s- I should tell you that I am licensed in Nova Scotia Brokerage (2021-3000179) Broker (2021-3000180), Ontario(M18001555) & in British Columbia(BCFSA #504098).

p.s.s.s You can download my new mortgage app here