Tag Archive for: Inflation and interest rates

Rate Announcement Jan 2023

The Bank of Canada did what many had predicted by increasing the overnight lending rate by .25% or 25 basis points. However it is their language in the press release that is providing some optimism going forward. This is key part “expects to hold the policy rate at its current level while it assesses the impact of the cumulative interest rate increases.” They also said that they expect that CPI inflation will come down to 3% this year and back to 2% in 2024.

While nobody wanted another rate increase, at least it was only 25 basis points and that going forward they expect to hold the rates where they are unless demand on goods and services proves much more bullish than currently projected. If this happens then they are prepared to increase the rates yet again. However knowing that it does take 8-10 months for the effects of the rate increases to work their way through the system, let’s hope that this last one does the trick.

By the way the next meeting for the Bank of Canada is March 8th so mark your calendars.

Today I am thankful that this could be the last of the rate increases, a tune up from my physiotherapist what just what my body needed and my girls looking out for each other away at university.

I look forward to hearing from you in regard to your mortgage needs.

Patrick

p.s- You can click on this link to start the process whenever you are ready. Schedule your meeting with me here.

p.s.s- I should tell you that I am licensed in Nova Scotia Brokerage (2022-3000179) Broker (2022-3000180), Ontario(M18001555) & in British Columbia(BCFSA #504098).

p.s.s.s You can download my new mortgage app here

The Fine Print

The Bank of Canada will come out with their latest interest rate announcement at 10am eastern or 11am here in the Maritimes. While many of us are expecting at least a 75bps increase to the overnight lending rate, the real meat and potatoes will be in the press release from the meeting.

The devil truly is in the details, as the fourth quarter monetary policy is also announced today. The Bank will give details on whether it thinks that the current and past rate increases are doing what they were supposed to do and if more are necessary. While it is true that the overall inflationary rate is decreasing, it is just not coming down fast enough. It decreased by .1% to 6.9% this month, while the target rate is 2%. We still have a ways to go to get there.

Many economists are predicting a recession for 2023 and more rate increases will defiantly be pushing us in that direction. What we don’t know is the length or severity of the pull back to our economy and other major economies as well. We need to proactively cut back our discretionary spending before spending cuts and job losses are thrust upon us. What the Bank of Canada is doing is beyond our control but whether we decide to eat out or make supper at home is totally up to us.

Today I am thankful for the chance to connect with friends that I haven’t spoken with in months, new connections with new idea’s to improve my effectiveness and helping people see the best way forward.

I look forward to hearing from you in regard to your mortgage needs.

Patrick

p.s- You can click on this link to start the process whenever you are ready. Schedule your meeting with me here.

p.s.s- I should tell you that I am licensed in Nova Scotia Brokerage (2021-3000179) Broker (2021-3000180), Ontario(M18001555) & in British Columbia(BCFSA #504098).

p.s.s.s You can download my new mortgage app here

Spoiled Rotten

We have been spoiled rotten with the rock bottom low interest rates that we have had for the past 15 or so years. I am reminded of this fact now that the five year discounted rate is 5.14%. However this sill pales in comparison to high rates of the mid 80’s at 16 or 17%.

People keep asking me when do I see rates coming back down. Well if you listen to the central bankers like Tif Macklem who is the head of the Bank of Canada, it’s going to keep going up before it comes back down. This is because our overall inflation rate is till too high. With the last monthly report from August which had us at 7%. Yes it is coming back down from it’s record high this summer, it’s just not coming back to earth fast enough.

All this means that we will have to suffer out with higher interest rates until the inflation rate comes back down. So the sooner we can reduce our spending, the less action the Bank of Canada will have to take to force us to tighten our belts. Buckle up, it may be a bumpy ride for the next 6-12 months.

Today I am thankful for a trip to the valley with my wife and daughters yesterday to celebrate their birthday, having them home during their reading week from university and the perspective that things are not as out of control as they were in the 80’s.

I look forward to hearing from you in regard to your mortgage needs.

Patrick

p.s- You can click on this link to start the process whenever you are ready. Schedule your meeting with me here.

p.s.s- I should tell you that I am licensed in Nova Scotia Brokerage (2021-3000179) Broker (2021-3000180), Ontario(M18001555) & in British Columbia(BCFSA #504098).

p.s.s.s You can download my new mortgage app here

What does it mean?

Yesterday for the first time a very long time ( 26 years in-fact) the Bank of Canada raised the key overnight lending rate by 100 basis points or 1 full percentage point. As a result the bank prime lending rate is now 4.7%.

Many of us are now waking up this morning asking what does this all mean and how will it impact me. Firstly if you have a variable rate mortgage your payment has now increased. Those with lines of credit their payments have also increased. Basically if you are looking to borrow money it has now become more expensive. The days of cheap/free money are now officially over.

The Bank of Canada has made these moves in an effort to bring inflation which is now at 40 year highs under control. In-fact just prior to the BOC making the policy announcement yesterday the American CPI numbers were released and they hit 9.1%, which is another 40 year high. Inflation has been driven up by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, consistent supply chain issues and continued Chinese lockdowns.

What the BOC is looking for is for consumers to spend less, thus driving down demand. However if the spending stops too quickly it will just drive us into another recession. Only time will tell how this will all work out but with these rapid increases of rates things may come to a halt pretty quickly.

Today I am thankful for appraisals coming in just in time, the arrival of the warmth of summer and Alpe D’Huez stage of the Tour de France today.

I look forward to hearing from you in regard to your mortgage needs.

Patrick

p.s- You can click on this link to start the process whenever you are ready. Schedule your meeting with me here.

p.s.s- I should tell you that I am licensed in Nova Scotia Brokerage (2021-3000179) Broker (2021-3000180), Ontario(M18001555) & in British Columbia(BCFSA #504098).

p.s.s.s You can download my new mortgage app here

BOC Rate Announcement

The Bank of Canada meets today and will publish their latest policy on interest rates. Most economists are widely expecting a 75 basis points increase similar to what the Federal Reserve did in the US just recently. If this does happen it will be the largest rate increase in over 26 years. Which many believe is required to finely bring our sky high inflation under control.

With the announcement today that the US CPI numbers just hit 9.1% for June which is a 40 year high, it is almost assured that we will have an oversized rate increase.

Well the BOC just exceeded everyone’s expectation by increasing the overnight lending rate by 100 basis points to 2.5%. This as a result will increase the prime lending rate from 3.7% to 4.7%. So those with variable rate mortgages or lines of credit will have their payments increased for the next month. In the policy announcement they BOC stated that CPI has remained high ( in the 8% range) due to the war in Ukraine &supply chain issues that have yet to be resolved.

In the published announcement BOC indicated that this may not be the last of the rate increases and it will depend on the state of the over all economy and how inflation reacts to these changes. The next scheduled meeting is September 7th.

Today I am thankful for my daily motivational quotes my friend Shane sends me on a daily basis, a hill run when I didn’t want do it and date night with my wife last night.

I look forward to hearing from you in regard to your mortgage needs.

Patrick

p.s- You can click on this link to start the process whenever you are ready. Schedule your meeting with me here.

p.s.s- I should tell you that I am licensed in Nova Scotia Brokerage (2021-3000179) Broker (2021-3000180), Ontario(M18001555) & in British Columbia(BCFSA #504098).

p.s.s.s You can download my new mortgage app here

Inflation and interest rates

There is lots of talk about an impending increase to the bank of Canada prime lending rate. This is because inflation has been on the rise recently. Also rising inflation is usually a sign that the economy is doing well. While I do not profess to be an economist and can’t really give you any hard facts on GDP, I do see the costs of almost everything going up. The cost of gas has almost doubled since last year, most car lots are empty as they can’t get enough vehicles and year over year the cost of new homes in Halifax has increased by 21.2%

Now does that all point to a booming economy as the real reason for the prices of almost everything increasing. I think it’s more complex than that. Nationally we are still adding jobs, 31K in October alone. Yet at the same time minimum wage positions are being left unfilled as more and more people can’t make ends meets at our current minimum wage of 12.95/hour. There are no vehicles on lots mostly due to the shortage of computer chips to build them, thus creating a high artificial demand for new and used cars. Lastly our real estate market, normally Halifax has around 2,100 listings at any given time. Currently we are around 335, which is not enough to meet the demand thus further adding increase of home prices due to rampant bidding wars.

So if and when the Bank of Canada decides to intervene and increase the rates, I don’t think it will change anything. This is because the interest rate adjustment will not actually address the root cause of the increase of so many of the items that are effecting our lives at this vary moment. Having no chip shortage will allow auto makers to ramp up supply again, thus brining down demand and prices. Also when more building permits equal more home starts and more listings then that will release some of the pressure of our housing market. So while increasing rates in the past may have seemed like the right thing to do to keep a cap in raising inflation, currently I don’t think that is the logically solution.

“Inflation is when you pay fifteen dollars for the ten dollar haircut you used to get for five dollars when you had hair.” Sam Ewing

I look forward to your thoughts on this as well.

I look forward to hearing from you in regard to your mortgage needs.

Patrick

p.s- You can click on this link to start the process whenever you are ready. Schedule your meeting with me here.

p.s.s- I should tell you that I am licensed in Nova Scotia, Ontario(M18001555) & in British Columbia(BCFSA #504098).

p.s.s.s You can download my new mortgage app here